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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/08 10:51

   Soybeans Double-Digits Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 12 to 14 cents higher, and wheat is 
3 to 6 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is mostly higher with the Dow up 450. The dollar index 
is 34 points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker 
with crude down $0.45. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold down $20.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade working back toward 
steady at midday with two-sided trade so far after a strong start to the 
overnight session giving way to a weak start to the day session with upfront 
spreads slightly weaker. Ethanol margins are seeing support from energy values 
and rising world ethanol prices, as well as spring driving demand building. The 
daily export wire has remained quiet, for the most part, this week with limited 
new-crop sales. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 1.544 million 
bushels vs. the needed pace. Basis should remain sideways short term, as warmer 
weather will help move grain to town with near harvest pace of inbound bushels 
in some areas ahead of the start of spring fieldwork. Double-crop planting in 
Brazil is well underway, as well, but behind the usual pace with rains limiting 
progress. On the May contract, resistance is the 20-day at $5.45, which is 
where we are just below at midday. The upper Bollinger Band at $5.61 is next 
resistance, and the lower Bollinger Band at $5.29 is support.


   Soybeans are 12 to 14 cents higher at midday with fresh highs scored again 
overnight before fading toward the day session. The gains came on harvest 
progress and quality concerns in Brazil, drier weather in Argentina and 
potential African swine flu outbreaks all catching the eye of the market. Meal 
is $0.50 to $1.50 higher, and oil is 90 to 100 points higher. Basis will likely 
remain flat at strong levels with slower movement as the export program winds 
down and a bigger focus on crush margins into spring with oil leading, and at 
new highs again. Weekly export inspections continue their downtrend at 587,594 
as the seasonal program winds up. The May chart has resistance at the recent 
high at $14.60, with support the 20-day at $13.96.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade remaining broadly 
range-bound overall with support from row crops and mixed weather while the 
intra-month spreads weaken. The dollar is above 92 on the index, getting back 
to the upper end of the range with further consolidation at the upper end of 
the range needed to weigh on trade. Concerns of the Fed fighting inflation are 
triggering a bit of a flight to safety action, which has continued into the 
start of the week. The Plains should see warmer weather, bringing the crop 
closer to exiting dormancy soon. Some dry pockets still persist with rains to 
favor the eastern growing areas. Weekly export inspections bounced a bit at 
482,130 metric tons. KC is at a 28-cent discount to Chicago, with Minneapolis 
at -6. KC May chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $6.10, with 
resistance the 20-day at $6.35, which we are just below.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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