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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/15 11:42
Cattle Futures Surge Tuesday
Despite early trade uncertainty Tuesday morning, buyers quickly moved back
into cattle futures, focusing on continued underlying strength in all markets.
Early buying is likely to help sustain late day support through all cattle
trade.
Rick Kment
DTN Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures have posted active gains Tuesday morning as cattle futures
have quickly bounced back from early week losses as traders continue to focus
on the ability to sustain and potentially expand the cash cattle market support
seen last week. Triple-digit gains are seen in both live cattle and feeder
cattle futures with nearby feeder cattle leading the shift higher with gains
nearly $2.50 per cwt at midday. Lean hog futures are mixed to mostly lower, but
for the most part, traders seem to be steadily focused on the direction and
activity levels in the cattle complex. December corn is up 3 1/4 at $4.213 and
December soybean meal is down $1.90 at $279.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down 312.91 at 44,146.74.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain
start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains are seen in all
live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher
holding a $2.70 per cwt rally. Although, the August contract is technically
leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts
approaching $2 per cwt gains at midday is the main driver of the renewed market
support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least
temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef
values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Trade is likely to remain
stable but generally slow through the rest of the trading session, likely
limiting any additional widespread market shifts. Cash cattle markets remain
very slow to start Tuesday morning.
Bids and asking prices are not established as of yet. Significant trade
volume will likely be delayed until well into the second half of the week.
August live cattle are $2.53 higher at $221.875, October live cattle are $1.75
higher at $218.525, December live cattle are $1.55 higher at $219.00. Boxed
beef prices are higher: choice up $1.46 ($378.53) and select up $2.03 ($366.61)
with a movement of 83.82 loads (64.65 loads of choice, 13.27 loads of select,
zero loads of trim and 5.90 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle have rallied higher Tuesday morning with all contracts through
March 2026 now trading at $2 per cwt higher or above as strong underlying
support has helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels.
The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark
additional underlying futures market support but could create additional
fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future. August
feeders are $2.38 higher at $321.85, September feeders are $2.10 higher at
$321.675 and October feeders are $2.05 higher at $319.75.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the
attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July
futures remain positive with a 15 cent per cwt gain, but the underlying
concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will
impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price
levels. October futures are leading the market lower for nearby trade activity
with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market
pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices.
Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and
$28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting
for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any
sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.
July lean hogs are $0.15 higher at $106.85, August lean hogs are $0.08 lower
at $103.15 and October lean hogs are $1.03 lower at $86.65. Hog prices are
higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $4.32 with a weighted average
of $110.36, ranging from $99.00 to $113.50 on 4,015 head with a five-day
rolling average of $111.20. Pork cutouts totaled 156.84 loads with 148.24 loads
of pork cuts and 8.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.50 at
$113.58.
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