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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/08 11:57
Support Finds the Livestock Contracts
Even though there's a lot at stake this week, the futures market is
favorable to all the livestock contracts early in the week.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
As the week gets underway, the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are
enjoying the market's support while the lean hog market is still trying to find
stable footing around the market's indecisiveness. As the futures market takes
an overall supported leap into Monday's trade, the countryside remains intense,
itching to see if feedlots can break the cash cattle market's stagnant trade.
May corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.00. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 503.78 points and NASDAQ is down 101.71 points.
LIVE CATTLE
A spark of interest has found the live cattle contracts and is leading the
complex mildly higher into Monday's afternoon trade. After a rather
disappointing week with cash cattle selling for steady to weaker prices,
feedlots desperately hope that this week is more fruitful than last. April live
cattle are up $0.40 at $119.42, June live cattle are up $0.87 at $118.92 and
August live cattle are up $0.70 at $117.77. Feedlots are sick of steady to
weaker trade and hope that with spring nearing that they will be able to
finally regain some leverage in this week's cash cattle market. It's too early
in the week for trade to develop but feedlots are expected to price their pens
higher again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat larger in
Kansas, larger in Texas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,593 head. Of which 69%
(54,894 head) are committed for delivery in the next two weeks, while the
remaining 31% (24,699 head) are committed for the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.20 ($231.13) and select down
$2.48 ($233.33) with a movement of 38 loads (16.86 loads of choice, 4.48 loads
of select, 9.33 loads of trim and 6.84 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
As the corn market trades mildly lower, the nearby feeder cattle contracts
are relishing in Monday's opportunity to trade higher. With the support of the
live cattle market's higher trade, the feeder cattle contracts feel confident
in trading higher, which the market hasn't been able to successfully do in
quite some time. March feeders are up $0.57 at $135.17, April feeders are up
$0.90 at $139.92 and May feeders are up $0.30 at $145.45. If the weather
continues to hold and resemble spring-like temperatures, calf buyers could
continue support the market as many are hopeful to get grass calves bought.
LEAN HOGS
Welcome to another week where we wonder, what in the world is the hog market
going to do! With pork demand as unbelievably strong as it is, the pressure
from the technical side of the market may not be enough to send the market
completely lower if consumers are going to keep packers on their toes. The
morning's pork cutout values are enough to make you think that your coffee is
skewing your vision and how in the world could a Monday get better? But before
you put the cart before the horse, let's see how the day closes. There's a lot
that can happen from the morning pork cutout value to the afternoon's close and
the market puts far more assurance in the afternoon's value. April lean hogs
are down $0.20 at $86.97, June lean hogs are up $0.45 at $95.87 and July lean
hogs are up $0.37 at $96.30.
The projected lean hog index for 3/4/2021 is up $0.51 at $84.57, and the
actual index for 3/3/2021 is up $0.79 at $84.06. Hog prices are lower on the
National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.38 with a weighted average of
$81.20, ranging from $80.00 to $85.50 on 3,965 head and a five-day rolling
average of $81.18. Pork cutouts total 85.66 loads with 78.81 loads of pork cuts
and 6.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.98, $103.12.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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